>>> HELLO, EVERYONE, AND WELCOME TO AMANPOUR AND COMPANY.

HERE'S WHAT IS COMING UP.

>> AID OFFICIALS WARNED MORE AND MORE CHILDREN COULD DIE OF STARVATION.

THEN SYRIA.

WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD?

I ASKED EXPERT REM TURKMONI.

AND TENSIONS IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT.

WHY SHE TAKES THE RISK OF WAR IS HIGH AND GETTING HIGHER.

PLUS -- >> I DO THINK THAT UNITED STATES IS AT ITS BEST WHEN IT BRINGS ITS BEST TO ITS FRIENDS AROUND THE WORLD.

>> UNPACKING THE TRUMP TRIP.

THE PRESIDENT'S VISIT TO THE GOLF AND WHAT IT TELLS US ABOUT THE NEW WORLD ORDER.

>> AMANPOUR AND COMPANY IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT, JIM ATTWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS, CANDACE KING WEIR THE SYLVIA A.

AND SIMON B. POYTA PROGRAMMING ENDOWMENT TO FIGHT ANTISEMITISM, THE FAMILY FOUNDATION OF LEILA AND MICKEY STRAUS, THE FILOMEN M. GOSTINO FOUNDATION, SETON J.

D MELVIN, THE PETER G. PETERSON AND JOAN GANZ COONEY FUND, CHARLES ROSENBLUM, KOO AND PATRICIA YUEN,, COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL BRIDGES IN OUR COMMUNITIES, BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG, AND JEFFREY KATZ AND BETH ROGERS, AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU .

THANK YOU.

>> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE.

UNITED KINGDOM IS MAKING ITS FRUSTRATION WITH ITS ALLY ISRAEL KNOWN TODAY, SUMMONING ITS AMBASSADOR, PAUSING TRADE NEGOTIATIONS AND.

THE BRITISH FOREIGN OFFICE SAYS IT CANNOT ADVANCE TALKS ON TRADE WHILE PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU CONTINUES TO PURSUE, QUOTE, EGREGIOUS POLICIES IN GAZA AND THE WEST BANK.

HEARS FOREIGN MINISTER DAVID LAME.

>> NETANYAHU'S ACTIONS HAVE MADE THIS NECESSARY.

BUT TODAY MY HONORABLE FRIEND, THE MINISTER FOR THE MIDDLE EAST, IS SUMMONING ISRAELI AMBASSADORS TO CONVEY THIS MESSAGE.

>> FRANCE AND CANADA ALSO THREATENED TO TAKE CONCRETE ACTION AS ISRAEL CONTINUES ITS PUSH INTO GAZA.

NETANYAHU SAID MONDAY THAT HIS PLAN IS TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE GAZA STRIP.

ISRAEL SAYS IT WILL NOW ALLOW A BASIC AMOUNT OF FOOD INTO THE ENCLAVE AFTER 2 1/2 MONTHS OF BLOCKADE BUT HUMANITARIAN OFFICIALS SAY IT IS NOT ENOUGH.

THE CHIEF WARNS 14,000 BABIES COULD DIE IN GAZA IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHOUT AID.

LET US GO NOW TO JEREMY DIAMOND IN TEL AVIV WITH THE LATEST.

SO THESE CONCRETE STEPS THAT THESE THREE ISRAEL ALLIES HAVE THREATENED TO TAKE INCLUDE WHAT EXACTLY?

JEREMY, WHAT ARE WE LEARNING?

>> Reporter: WELL, SO FAR, WHAT WE KNOW IS THE STEPS THAT UNITED KINGDOM HAS TAKEN IN TERMS OF PAUSING THOSE TRADE NEGOTIATIONS, SUMMONING THE AMBASSADOR AND THOSE SANCTIONS ON SOME ISRAELI SETTLERS.

IT IS NOT CLEAR YET WHAT THE CONSEQUENCES WILL BE COMING FROM FRANCE AND CANADA.

NOR IS IT CLEAR THAT THESE WILL NECESSARILY HAVE THE DESIRED EFFECT ON THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER.

CERTAINLY, ISRAEL HAS BEEN FACING MOUNTING INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE INCLUDING FROM SOME OF THESE VERY SAME ALLIES.

AT THE END OF THE DAY THOUGH, I THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THESE COUNTRIES ARE WILLING TO GO FURTHER IN TERMS OF CONCRETE ACTIONS TO PRESSURE THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER AND ALSO WHETHER THE UNITED STATES FOLLOW SUIT.

AT THE END OF THE DAY, THAT IS GOING TO BE BENJAMIN NETANYAHU'S AND NORTHSTAR IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH PRESSURE HE IS TRULY UNDER.

HOW IT WILL AFFECT HIS ABILITY TO CARRY OUT THIS WAR IN GAZA, WHICH IS SOMETHING HE HANDED OUT JUST YESTERDAY WHEN HE TRIED TO JUSTIFY TO HIS RIGHT WING ALLIES IN GOVERNMENT WHY HE WAS ALLOWING A BASIC AMOUNT OF HUMANITARIAN AID.

HE POINTED TO THE PRESSURE, INCLUDING FROM THE UNITED STATES, THAT THESE IMAGES OF STARVATION IN GAZA SIMPLY WERE NOT SOMETHING THAT THE U.S. COULD STAND ANY LONGER.

AND THEREFORE HE SAID, IN ORDER TO ENSURE THAT ISRAEL CAN CONTINUE TO CARRY OUT THIS WAR WITH, YOU KNOW, U.S.

WEAPONS AND OTHER ARMS SUPPORT THAT THEY PROVIDE, THAT IS WHY HE WAS TAKING THAT STEP.

SO I THINK AT THE END OF THE DAY, IT COMES DOWN TO HOW MUCH PRESSURE IS PRESIDENT TRUMP GOING TO BEAR ON NETANYAHU.

AT THIS STAGE, THAT SEEMS UNCLEAR.

>> YEAH .

AND ACTIO'S IS REPORTING THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP TO THAT POINT IS ALSO EXPRESSING SOME EXASPERATION AND PUSHING FOR NETANYAHU TO WRAP THINGS UP IN GAZA AS WELL.

YOU MENTIONED THE PRESSURE THAT THE PRIME MINISTER IS FEELING EXTERNALLY, OBVIOUSLY.

INTERNALLY FROM HIS FAR RIGHT COALITION MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO FROM THE MAJORITY OF ISRAELIS THAT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A DEAL IN WHICH ALL OF THESE HOSTAGES COME HOME AND A CEASE- FIRE IS PUT INTO PLACE, INCLUDING THE FAMILY MEMBERS OF THE 50 HAD HOSTAGES THAT REMAIN IN GAZA.

WE KNOW THAT TALKS ARE ONGOING STILL IN DELHI.

WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT WHERE THEY STAND?

>> Reporter: YEAH.

THAT IS RIGHT.

WE KNOW THAT NEGOTIATING TEAM IS STILL IN DELHI DESPITE REPORTS CONSIDERING THE PRIME MINISTER WAS CONSIDERING CALLING THAT TEAM BACK.

WHAT WE HAVE LESS OF A CLEAR SENSE ABOUT IS WHETHER THEY HAVE ANY REAL PROGRESS.

THE ONLY ADVANCEMENTS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST WEEK, REMEMBER, THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE MOVE TO KIND OF UNLOCK A BIGGER DEAL TO FREE THE REMAINING 50 HAD HOSTAGES AND LEAD TO SOME KIND OF A CEASE-FIRE HERE.

BUT ALL WE HAVE REALLY SEEN IS THAT THE ISRAELIS HAVE AT LEAST AGREED TO DISCUSS MULTIPLE AVENUES, MEANING NOT JUST A SHORT-TERM CEASE-FIRE FOR THE RELEASE OF ABOUT HALF OF THE LIVING HOSTAGES, BUT RATHER THEY DID PUT ON THE TABLE AS WELL DISCUSSIONS ABOUT AN END OF THE WAR IN GAZA AND RELEASE OF ALL THE HOSTAGES.

AS YOU RIGHTLY POINT OUT, A MAJORITY OF ISRAELIS WANT TO SEE THAT.

THEY WANT TO SEE A DEAL THAT FREES ALL OF THE 50 HAD HOSTAGES HELD IN GAZA.

THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT IS ONLY WILLING TO MAKE THAT DEAL IF HAMAS ALSO AGREES TO FULLY SURRENDER AND DISARM, AND FOR THE GAZA STRIP TO BE ENTIRELY DEMILITARIZED.

THAT IS WHERE THE STICKING POINT CURRENTLY STANDS.

HAMAS HAS SAID THAT THEIR REDLINE IS THEY WILL NOT AGREE TO DISARM.

THEY HAVE SAID THEY ARE WILLING TO AGREE TO AN END OF THE WAR.

TO RELEASE ALL OF THE HOSTAGES HELD IN GAZA.

BUT THEY WILL NOT DISARM.

THAT SEEMS TO BE WHERE THE PRIMARY STICKING POINT IS HERE.

BEYOND THAT OF COURSE WE KNOW THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER IS VERY MUCH TETHERED TO THE RIGHT WING OF HIS GOVERNMENT WHICH IS ADVOCATING NOT JUST FOR THE DEFEAT OF HAMAS IN GAZA BUT ALSO ADVOCATING FOR ISRAEL COMPLETELY TAKING OVER THE GAZA STRIP, DEPARTING GAZA'S 2 MILLION+ POPULATION OUT OF -- OUT OF GAZA, AND THEN ESTABLISHING JEWISH SETTLEMENTS THERE.

AND THAT IS OBVIOUSLY NOT SOMETHING THAT IS GOING TO BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY KIND OF AGREEMENT AT THIS STAGE.

>> YEAH.

INCLUDING FROM THE IDF, WHICH HAS LONG SAID THEY WOULD NOT BE IN FAVOR OF LONG-TERM OCCUPATION OF THE GAZA STRIP AS WELL.

JEREMY, THANK YOU.

NOW FOR A CLOSER LOOK AT THE REALITIES ON THE GROUND.

THIS REPORT.

AND WE MUST WARN YOU, SOME OF THE IMAGES ARE GRAPHIC .

>> THIS IS THE STORY OF ONE 12- YEAR-OLD GIRL AND HER FAMILY.

BUT IT IS ALSO THE STORY OF SO MANY OTHERS IN GAZA TODAY.

DAYS ARE PUNCTUATED BY THE NEVER-ENDING SEARCH FOR WATER AND FOOD.

AND WHERE THE DEATH OF ONE PUSHES A FAMILY TO AND/OR UNIMAGINABLE HARDSHIPS.

>> AFTER HER BROTHER WAS KILLED, IT WAS JENNA WHO STEPPED UP, BECOMING HER FAMILY'S CARETAKER AND GUARDIAN.

>> A NEED MADE WORSE BY ISRAEL'S PUNISHING 11-WEEK BLOCKADE ON THE GAZA STRIP.

ISRAEL SAYS THE BLOCKADE WAS DESIGNED TO BRING ABOUT THE RELEASE OF ALL OF THE HOSTAGES AND PRESSURE HAMAS.

SO FAR, NEITHER HAS HAPPENED.

INSTEAD, DESPITE AID NOT COMING IN, THE U.N. SAYS 20% OF THE POPULATION FACES STARVATION CALLING IT, QUOTE, ATROCIOUS AND BEYOND HUMANE.

>> A BABY BORN AND PERISHED.

SURROUNDED BY STARVATION.

HER BRIEF THREE MONTHS OF LIFE SUSTAINED BY A CHILD.

BEFORE THE WAR, GAZA SURVIVED ON FOOD DELIVERIES FROM HUNDREDS OF TRUCKS A DAY.

NOW, WITH THE ISRAELI MILITARY PLEDGING TO TAKE OVER THE ENTIRE GAZA STRIP, WHATEVER IT MAKES IT THROUGH WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY NOT BE ENOUGH.

>> THE BRUTAL REALITIES OF WAR THROUGH THE EYES OF A 12-YEAR- OLD.

THANKS FOR THE REPORTING THERE.

>>> WELL, NEXT, WE TURN TO SYRIA WHICH IS RAPIDLY COMING IN FROM THE CALLED.

PRESIDENT TRUMP MIDDLE EAST TRIP WITH THE FORMER JIHADIST WITH A U.S. BOUNTY ON HIS HEAD MEETING UNITED STATES MARKS A WATERSHED MOMENT.

TRUMP PROMISED TO LIFT SANCTIONS AND THE HAS BEEN TIRELESSLY THE WEST TO ENSURE HIS COUNTRY CEASES TO BE A PARIAH STATE.

BUT IT WILL NOT BE EASY.

SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO SAYS THAT THE U.S. 'S TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT COULD BE WEEKS AWAY FROM COLLAPSE.

IT IS GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN.

AND, AS NOTED IN THE INTRODUCTION THERE, QUITE A WHIRLWIND FIVE MONTHS FOR THE SYRIA, THE SYRIAN PEOPLE, AND THE INDOOR AND PRESIDENT WHO AS WE NOTED HAS BEEN COURTING THE WEST.

HE HAS ALSO BEEN IN A SENSE COURTING SYRIANS.

OVER THE LAST FIVE MONTHS NOW HE HAS BEEN IN CHARGE.

HOW THEY ARE VIEWING HIM AS A WHOLE.

>> I THINK HE GATHERED TO RALLY CONSIDERABLE SUPPORT BEHIND HIM IN THE FIRST TWO MONTHS.

THEN COMES REALITY.

IT WAS OVER.

THE ECONOMY WAS GETTING WORSE.

AND PEOPLE STARTED DOUBTING HIS ABILITY TO RESCUE THE COUNTRY.

SO THE LIFTING OF THE SANCTIONS OR ANNOUNCING TO LIFT THE SANCTIONS BY THE AMERICANS IS VERY, VERY TIMELY.

I THINK THE REMARKS BY MARCO RUBIO YOU JUST REFERRED TO WAS WEEKS AWAY FROM COLLAPSE.

HE SAID THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN THE CASE HAD THE U.S. NOT LIFTED THE SANCTIONS AND ENGAGE WITH THE INTERIM GOVERNMENT BECAUSE THEY SAW THE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE COMING AND THAT PREVENTED THE PRESIDENT'S ABILITY TO BRING THE COUNTRY TOGETHER, ESPECIALLY DIFFERENT ARMED GROUPS.

SO THE LOGIC OF THE INTERVENTIONS AS WE UNDERSTOOD THE SECRETARY OF STATE'S REMARKS TODAY, THEY DID THIS TO PREVENT THE COLLAPSE.

THEY DON'T SEE THE COLLAPSE COMING ANYMORE.

THEY SAY IT IS A POSSIBILITY.

THEY HOPE THE LIFTING OF THE SANCTIONS ENABLED THE REGION NOW TO HELP PRESIDENT AL-SHARAA TO REBUILD THE COUNTRY, AND THAT COULD HELP HIM BRING MORE SUPPORT FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY , AGAIN.

>> RIGHT.

BECAUSE THE SECRETARY OF STATE WENT ON TO SAY THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS THAT THE PARTNERING REGIONS IN THE NATION WANT TO GET AID IN AND THEY WANT TO START HELPING HIM AND THEY CAN'T BECAUSE THEY ARE AFRAID OF THE SANCTIONS AND THUS LIFTING THE SANCTIONS WILL ENABLE AID BACK IN THE COUNTRY.

THAT IS IN LINE WITH THE REPORTING THAT IT WAS AHMED AL- SHARAA WHO HIMSELF HAD BEEN PRESSURING AND ASKING PRESIDENT TRUMP TO EFFECTIVELY LIFT THESE SANCTIONS.

HOW SOON YOU EXPECT THAT AID TO START COMING IN AND CHANGE TO BE VISIBLE?

>> IT IS GOING TO TAKE TIME.

INITIALLY, THERE WOULD BE THE POSITIVE IMPACT OF THE ANNOUNCEMENT ITSELF.

BUT THE CHILLING EFFECT OF THE SANCTIONS GO VERY DEEP.

THE PRIVATE SECTOR WILL BE VERY RELUCTANT TO DEAL WITH SYRIA.

HOWEVER, IF THE NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES OF THE GULF COUNTRY IS ABLE, THEY WILL SEE AN IMPACT ON THE SHORT AND MEDIUM- TERM.

FROM THAT POINT OF VIEW, I THINK THE U.S. DID THE RIGHT THING.

THE NARRATIVE OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS IS U.S.

OBSTACLE.

THE U.S., STANDING BEHIND SYRIA.

BROKEN SYRIA OR PROSPEROUS SYRIA?

THE U.S. SANCTIONS ARE CAUSING STARVATION AND MISERY.

THE U.S. RELIEVES ITSELF FROM THAT AND NOW THE NEW GOVERNMENT HAS AN OPPORTUNITY.

WHETHER THEY ARE GOING TO BE DELIVERING ARE NOT, I THINK THAT IS STILL A QUESTION.

WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.

HOW ARE THEY GOING TO INTEGRATE THE COUNTRY?

WHAT KIND OF ECONOMY ARE THEY GOING TO CREATE?

IS IT GOING TO BE INCLUSIVE, TRANSPARENT?

ARE THEY GOING TO EXCLUDE MANY SYRIANS LIKE THE PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT DID?

S?

PAIR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COUNTRY?

THAT NEEDS TO BE SEEN.

THESE ARE SOME OF THE ISSUES THAT LED TO THE CONFLICT IN SYRIA.

YOU KNOW?

SOME AREAS WERE DEPRIVED.

SOME AREAS WERE COMPLETELY MARGINALIZED, EXCLUDED FROM THE ECONOMY.

SO NOW ALL THE OBSTACLES HAVE BEEN LIFTED.

WE HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHAT KIND OF ECONOMY.

THAT IS VERY LINKED TO THE ECONOMY.

TODAY, HOW THE SECRETARY OF STATE EMPHASIZED THAT SECURITY IS KEY IN SYRIA.

IF YOU HAVE SYRIA SECURE, THE REGION WOULD BE SECULAR.

THE KEY TO THAT IS TO INVOLVE ALL THE SYRIANS TO HAVE DEMOCRATIC, TRANSPARENT GOVERNANCE.

DECENTRALIZED ONE THAT ALLOWS THE LOCAL COMMUNITY TO TAKE PART IN GOVERNING THEMSELVES AND ALSO CREATING, AS I SAID, FAIR AND TRANSPARENT ECONOMY.

>> YEAH.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SANCTIONS WAIVERS ALONE ARE NOT ENOUGH AND SECRETARY OF STATE RUBIO WAS PRESSING THAT THE CONGRESS NEEDS TO GET INVOLVED, TOO, TO LIFT THESE SANCTIONS.

IT IS NOTABLE THAT AL-SHARAA WAS DESCRIBING THE DECISION AS A TURNING POINT IN STATE TELEVISION LAST NIGHT.

SORRY.

LAST WEEK.

AND HE SAID THIS.

IT ALLEVIATES THE SUFFERING OF THE PEOPLE, CONTRIBUTES TO REBIRTH, AND LAYS THE FOUNDATION FOR STABILITY IN THE REGION.

COULD LIFTING THE SANCTIONS RISK, HOWEVER, EMPOWERING CERTAIN FACTIONS?

BECAUSE WE KNOW THAT SHARAA DOES NOT HAVE FULL CONTROL OF THE COUNTRY JUST YET.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

BRINGS SO MANY RISKS.

FIRST OF ALL, WITH RESOURCES FLOWING, THAT CREATES COMPETITION.

SO FROM WITHIN AL-SHARAA'S CIRCLE ITSELF, YOU ARE GOING TO SEE MORE COMPETITION FOR POWER AND ALL THAT.

BUT ALSO ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

PEOPLE WILL SEE SOMETHING MORE WORTH IT TO FIGHT FOR.

BUT ALL OF THAT ON ITS OWN IS NOT ENOUGH.

NOW, ALL THE OBSTACLES HAVE BEEN LIFTED.

HE HAS BEEN GIVEN AN OPPORTUNITY.

AND I THINK HIS BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS HIS VERY OWN APPROACH WHICH IS VERY AUTHORITARIAN.

VERY CENTRAL.

HE AND LIKE TWO OR THREE PEOPLE AROUND HIM WANT TO TAKE ALL THE KEY DECISIONS.

AND IT IS NOT GOING TO WORK LIKE THAT.

IF HE DOES NOT RELAX, DELEGATE, DECENTRALIZED, FREE SYRIA, CREATE A MORE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS, THEN I AM NOT SURE HE IS GOING TO SUCCEED, ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO COMMUNITIES THAT STILL SEE THEMSELVES OUT OF THE TRANSITIONAL PROCESS, INCLUDING PEOPLE FROM BACKGROUNDS NORTHEAST OF SYRIA LIKE THE KURDS.

THE JEWS IN THE SOUTH.

THEY STILL NOT QUITE TRUST THE NEW GOVERNMENT.

THEY WANT TO GIVE HIM A NEW OPPORTUNITY, BUT THEY DON'T SEE THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT FOR HIM TO SIGN IN.

HANDOVER THE WEAPONS.

WE ARE JOINING THE NEW ARMY YOU ARE CREATING.

SO UNLESS YOU REALLY BUILDS TRUST WITH THIS COMMUNITY, AND MAKE THE BEST OUT OF THE OPPORTUNITY, WE WOULD STILL BE LIMITED.

>> REPORTING THAT SERIOUS DEFENSE MINISTER HAS CALLED ON A SMALL ARMED GROUP THAT HAVE YET TO MERGE WITH SECURITY APPARATUS TO DO SO WITHIN 10 DAYS.

IF THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN, IS THAT A LITMUS TEST AS TO THE POWER THAT HE CAN AMASS AS A WHOLE OVER THE COUNTRY?

>> I THINK THEY ARE HASTENING THE PROCESS A LITTLE BIT.

THEY ARE BUILDING A WHOLE NEW SECURITY SECTOR UPDATE.

THIS ONE AND THE OLD ONE.

IT DOES TAKE TRUST.

PEOPLE ARE NOT GOING TO HAND IN THEIR WEAPON AND HANDED IT TO THE SECURITY IF THEY DO NOT BUILD WITH THE SECURITIES.

I WOULD SAY OTHERS THAT ARE IN AREAS WITH MINORITY BACKGROUNDS, YOU KNOW, WHO STILL HAVE DEEP TRUST, AS I SAID, WITH THE GOVERNMENT.

IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO COME AND SAY, I AM THE STATE NOW.

I AM THE ONE WHO HAS.

YOU HAVE TO BUILD TRUST BEFORE THEY GET BACK TO YOU.

BECAUSE WHAT THEY SEE AND A NEW SECURITY SECTOR THAT EXCLUDES THEM THAT IS INDOCTRINATED AROUND ISLAMIC IDENTITY.

SO THE TRAINING TO JOIN THE ARMY IS STILL ISLAMIC TRAINING.

NEW FOREIGN FIGHTERS ARE APPOINTED IN THE ARMY WHILE ASSYRIAN GENERALS WHO DEFLECTED FROM THE REGIME, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT MANY THOUSANDS, OUTNUMBER STILL SITTING IN THE MARGIN.

SO SYRIANS WANT TO SEE A NATIONAL ARMY BEING CREATED THAT BRINGS BACK ALL THE GENERALS THAT HAD THE GUTS TO STAND UP TO REGIME.

OF FLEX THE COMPOSITION OF THE SYRIAN PEOPLE.

AND UNDER A NATIONAL FRAMEWORK.

NOT MARKED TRANSITIONAL ISLAMIST.

WHEN THEY SEE THIS HAPPENING, WHEN THEY SEE THIS PROCESS, THEY WILL TRUST THE STATE AND HANDED THEIR WEAPON.

PUTTING ULTIMATUMS ON ITS OWN, I DON'T THINK THAT IS GOING TO WORK.

>> IT DID NOT HELP IN MARCH WHEN ARMED MEN LOYAL TO THE NEW REGIME CARRIED OUT FIELD EXECUTIONS TO THOSE WHO WERE LOYAL TO THE ASSAD REGIMES.

YOU SAID THAT WAS AN AREA TO WATCH CLOSELY.

HAS ANY OF THAT CHANGED IN TERMS OF BROKERING MORE TRUST BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES?

>> NOT ACTUALLY.

IN SOME AREAS, WE ARE SEEING IMPROVEMENT.

BUT THERE IS STILL DEEP MISTRUST.

THEY STILL LOVE IN PANIC.

THEY ARE PANICKING.

THEY HAVE HISTORICALLY ROOTED STORIES.

THERE IS A MEMORY THAT COMES FROM MANY, MANY -- GOES WAY BEFORE ASSAD .

YOU KNOW?

THE SYRIANS ARE GOING TO COME AND KILL YOU ONE DAY.

NOW, THEY FEEL EXISTENTIAL THREAT.

SO THEY ARE FIGHTING FOR THEIR SURVIVAL.

NOT FOR ASSAD 'S REGIME .

THIS TRUST IS NOT THERE YET.

IF USES THIS OPPORTUNITY NOW TO START INVOLVEMENT IN THEIR AREA THAT INVOLVES ALL THIS FRUSTRATED, ANGRY YOUTH, THEN HE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO INTEGRATE THEM GRADUALLY.

BUT THE FIGURES ARE STILL DEEP.

AND THERE ARE STILL SMALL MICRO MASSACRES OR EVENTS HAPPENING ON A DAILY BASIS.

PEOPLE ARE BEING KIDNAPPED.

ESPECIALLY WOMEN.

AND THEY ARE ONLY DEEPENING THE FEARS, SADLY, AMONG THE COMMUNITY.

>> THERE WERE NO MANDATED PRECONDITIONS ATTACKED TO THE LIFTING OF CONDITIONS FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP.

BUT THEY DID COME WITH ASKS.

AND HE PROPOSED THAT SHARAA EXPELLING FOREIGN PALESTINIAN TERRORISTS AND HELPING THE U.S.

PREVENT THE RESURGENCE OF ISIS.

ARE THESE ACHIEVABLE ASKS IN YOUR VIEW?

>> SOME.

LEADERSHIP.

HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO RALLY ALL SYRIANS BEHIND IT TOWARDS A FINAL DEAL WITH ISRAEL.

THEY COULD AGREE TO A RELATION RIGHT NOW.

LIKE A TEMPORARY ARRANGEMENT.

BUT TO SIGN UP FOR A DEAL LIKE THE ACCORD, I DON'T THINK THE SYRIANS ARE READY FOR THIS.

WE HAVE TO REMEMBER, SYRIA IS A NEIGHBORING STATE TO ISRAEL.

VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE COUNTRIES THAT ALREADY SIGNED THE ABRAHAM ACCORD LIKE MOROCCO AND THE OTHER COUNTRIES.

ALSO TO PREVENT ICE IS COMING AGAIN IS TO BUILD LEGITIMATE AUTHORITY AND THAT TAKES TIME.

IT IS DOABLE.

IT IS DOABLE.

IT IS A LONG PROCESS.

IT TAKES TIME.

THE KEY TO THAT IS CLOSE INCLUSIVITY AND ALLOWING THE LOCAL COMMUNITY ITSELF -- WHAT IS YOUR STRONGEST ALLY -- AGAINST EXTREMISM.

WE HAVE TO ALLOW THEM TO BE ACTIVE AND TO HAVE POWER AT THE LEVEL.

RIGHT NOW, THE POWER IS EXTREMELY CENTRAL.

>> STILL MANY CHALLENGES AHEAD.

BUT A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AS WELL.

REM TURKMONI, THANK YOU.

WE APPRECIATE THE TIME .

>> THANK YOU.

>>> THE RISK OF WAR IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT IS HIGH AND GETTING HIGHER.

THAT IS THE SOBERING WARNING IN A NEW PIECE THAT LAYS OUT THE GROWING TENSIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND TAIWAN, PARTICULARLY UNDER TAIWAN'S PRESIDENT.

NOW, CHINA'S MILITARY ACTIVITIES ARE ON THE RISE, AND PURSUING AN UNPRECEDENTED MILITARY BUILDUP.

SO IS WAR BETWEEN TAIWAN AND CHINA INEVITABLE OR CAN AN OFFRAMP BE FOUND?

BONNIE LYNN, AUTHOR TO THAT PIECE, JOINS FROM NEW YORK.

IT IS SO GOOD TO SEE YOU.

THANKSFOR TAKING THE TIME.

TO YOUR POINT OF THE GROWING MILITARY ACTIVITY IN THE REGION, CHINA'S AGGRESSIVE MANEUVERS AROUND TAIWAN ARE NOT EXERCISES.

THEY ARE REHEARSALS.

TALK TO US ABOUT THE HEIGHTENED RISK RIGHT NOW OF POTENTIAL CONFLICT BETWEEN THESE TWO SIDES.

>> THANK YOU.

IT IS GREAT TO JOIN YOU TODAY.

SO AS I LAID OFF OF MY TWO CO- AUTHORS, WE ARE SEEING A LOT MORE CHINESE MILITARY ACTIVITY AGAINST TAIWAN.

SINCE THE START OF WILLIAM LAI'S ADMINISTRATION WHICH STARTED JANUARY 2024, WE HAVE SEEN CHINA ENGAGE IN THREE EXERCISES AGAINST TAIWAN, AND THAT DOES NOT INCLUDE THE SMALLER ARE NOT MEAN MILITARY EXERCISES.

IN ADDITION, WE ARE ALSO SEEN CHINA ENGAGE IN MORE DAILY PROVOCATIONS AND INTRUSIONS INTO TAIWAN'S AIR DEFENSE IDENTIFICATION ZONE.

WE ARE SEEING THIS INCREASE AT A RATE THAT WE HAVEN'T SEEN BEFORE TO AN EXTENT THAT EVEN TAIWAN'S MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENSE IS SAYING THAT THEY ARE SEEING ABOUT EVERY TWO WEEKS THE LARGER JOINT PATROLS FROM CHINA.

SO IT IS AN UNPRECEDENTED RATE OF MILITARY ACTIVITIES WE HAVE NOT SEEN FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW.

>> PEACE ACTIVITIES ARE COMING OUT JUST AFTER SPEECHES, AND FIERY SPEECHES THAT MAY BE MADE BY PRESIDENT LAI, AS OPPOSED TO THE PAST WHEN YOU WOULD SEE A STATE VISIT FROM MEMBERS OF CONGRESS OR VICE VERSA HERE TO THE UNITED STATES.

WHAT IS THAT SUPPOSED TO SIGNAL?

>> CHINA IS RESPONDING MORE TO WILLIAM LAI.

EVERYTHING HE DOES.

EVERYTHING HE IS SAYING.

AND WHEN HE ROSE UP MAJOR POLICY EFFORTS, CHINA IS RESPONDING.

TODAY IS THE ONE-YEAR ANNIVERSARY SINCE WILLIAM LAI HAS BEEN INAUGURATED.

SO WE ARE WAITING TO SEE IF CHINA IS GOING TO DO ANOTHER MILITARY EXERCISE AFTER THIS.

WE WILL NOTE THAT THIS SPEECH, HE DIDN'T REALLY ADDRESS CHINA AS MUCH AS SOME OF HIS PRIOR SPEECHES.

SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CHINA MAY NOT REACT AS STRONGLY OR FEEL THE NEED FROM THEIR PERSPECTIVE PUNISH WILLIAM LAI.

>> I BELIEVE HE SAID THINGS ALONG THE LINE OF WAR HAS NO WINNERS.

HISTORICALLY, WHAT HAS HIS STANCE BEEN VIS-@-VIS CHINA AND HOW HAS THAT DIFFERENT FROM HIS RECENT PREDECESSORS?

>> SO WILLIAM LAI'S STANCE ON CHINA'S NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM HIS PREDECESSORS.

THE WAY HE HAS TALKED ABOUT CHINA AND THE MEASURES HE HAS IMPLEMENTED TO DEFEND TAIWAN HAVE BEEN FIRMER AND BOLDER.

SO, FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN HE WAS INAUGURATED LAST YEAR, HE USED TERMS IN HIS INAUGURATION SPEECH THAT CHARACTERIZE TAIWAN AS A -- AS ALMOST A SEPARATE COUNTRY FROM CHINA, AND OF COURSE BEIJING DID NOT LIKE THAT.

HE ALSO TALKED ABOUT TAIWAN AS HAVING A SEPARATE HISTORY AND TALKED ABOUT AND USE TERMS THAT SUGGESTED TO CHINA THAT THERE WAS SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE ISLAND AND CHINA.

THIS YEAR, DURING HIS ANNIVERSARY OF HIS INAUGURATION, HE ACTUALLY DID NOT REALLY ADDRESS CHINA AT ALL DURING HIS SPEECH, BUT HE DID MENTION CHINA AS AN AGGRESSOR DURING Q&A.

>> YOU MENTIONED THE LAST TIME THAT MILITARY CONFLICT BETWEEN TWO SIDES CAME CLOSE WAS IN 2008.

I AM JUST WONDERING HOW YOU CAN COMPARE TODAY TO THAT OF THE PAST, AND ARE YOU WORRIED THAT PERHAPS THE WEST, THE WORLD, MAYBE TOO COMPLACENT AT THIS POINT?

>> WELL, I AM VERY WORRIED THAT BEIJING HAS LOTS OF INCENTIVES TO USE FORCE -- NOT NECESSARILY A MEDIALLY -- TO UNIFY WITH TAIWAN.

BUT WE ARE SEEING A PATTERN OF MORE AND MORE MILITARY USE AGAINST TAIWAN.

ONE OF THE LAST TIMES WE SAW A MAJOR RISK OF CONFLICT WAS IN 2008 ONE TAIWAN PRESIDENT WAS AT THE END OF HIS SECOND TERM.

AND HE PROPOSED A REFERENDUM IN TAIWAN THAT CHINA DID NOT LIKE.

AND AS A RESULT OF THAT REFERENDUM, WE SAW CHINA READY ITS MISSILES ON ALERT.

AND THERE WERE EVEN DISCUSSIONS WITHIN THE UNITED STATES THAT CHINA MIGHT BE WILLING TO ENGAGE IN A MISSILE STRIKE AGAINST TAIWAN.

LUCKILY, THE REFERENDUM THAT TAIWAN PRESIDENT TRY TO PUSH THROUGH NOT RECEIVE ENOUGH VOTES.

USUALLY REFERENDUMS IN TAIWAN HAVE TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 51% OF THE VOTES TO BE VALID.

SO IT WAS INVALIDATED.

BUT THAT JUST SHOWS THE CONCERN THAT WE SEE.

WE ARE SEEING AMONG CHINESE ANALYSTS.

LIKE PRESIDENT WILLIAM LAI AS SIMILAR TO TREASURY AS HAVING SIMILAR TENDENCIES TOWARDS INDEPENDENCE FROM CHINA'S PERSPECTIVE AND WILLING TO STIR UP DOMESTIC ISSUES OR UTILIZE DOMESTIC ACTIONS TO FROM THEIR PERSPECTIVE PROMOTE TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE.

AGAIN, THIS IS THEIR PERSPECTIVE.

NOT NECESSARILY OUR PERSPECTIVE.

>> BUT WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IS CHINA DOUBLE DOWN ON ITS INVESTMENTS IN ITS MILITARY, IN PARTICULAR ON A TECHNOLOGY SECTOR THERE.

ITS MILITARY HAS GROWN ENORMOUSLY.

IT'S NAVY IS NOW LARGER THAN THAT OF THE UNITED STATES AND COMING RATHER CLOSE TO MATCHING THE PROWESS OF THE U.S. MILITARY AND CAPABILITIES THERE.

WE KEEP HEARING ABOUT THE DAY 2027 AS PERHAPS A DATE THAT CHINA WOULD BE WILLING ARE PREPARED TO LAUNCH SOME SORT OF ATTACK AGAINST TAIWAN.

MAYBE EVEN A BLOCKADE OF SORTS.

HOW SERIOUS IS THAT CORRECT?

AND HOW ARE PREPARED NOW IS THE CHINESE MILITARY?

>> THAT IS AN EXCELLENT QUESTION.

I WOULD SAY THE CHINA'S MILITARY IS LARGELY ON TRACK TO BE ABLE TO HAVE THE CAPABILITIES BY 2027 TO ENGAGE IN A SERIOUS INVASION OF TAIWAN.

THAT IS READ THE ORIGINAL DATE CAME FROM.

THAT WAS FROM U.S. INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENTS THAT XI JINPING HAS SET THAT AS A TARGET DATE TO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE THE CAPABILITIES.

CAPABILITIES IS NOT THE SAME AS INTENT.

BUT WHAT MAKES 2027 EVEN MORE SENSITIVE IS IT ALSO LINKS TO OTHER DAYS THAT WE TALK ABOUT IN THE PEACE.

ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DATES IS THAT IS WHEN WE WILL SEE THE END -- THE NEAR -- THAT END OF THE FIRST TERM OF PRESIDENT WILLIAM LAI.

WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER TAIWAN PEASANT ELECTION UNDER A WITH THE ACTUAL ELECTION JANUARY 2028.

SO IF -- IF CHINA VIEWS WILLIAM LAI LIKE TREASURY , THERE IS GOING TO BE A LOT OF WORRIES IN 2027 THAT LAI MAY TAKE THESE EFFORTS THAT COULD TRY TO SWING THE ELECTION OR TAIWAN'S VOTERS HIS WAY.

SO I THINK THERE IS A PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF CHINESE THINKING ABOUT TAIWAN PACKAGE REALLY HEIGHTENED BY LATE 2027.

I WILL ALSO NOTE 2027 IS ALSO THE 100th YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE PEOPLE'S ARMY.

AS WELL IN 2027 WE WILL SEE THE NEXT PARTY CONGRESS IN CHINA WHERE WE EXPECT XI JINPING TO HAVE HIS UNPRECEDENTED FOURTH TERM AS LEADER OF CHINA.

SO THERE IS LOTS OF SPECIAL MEANING AND THAT YEAR THAT COULD DRIVE DIFFERENT MOTIVATIONS FOR WHY CHINA MIGHT WANT TO APPEAR BOLDER AND MIGHT WANT TO APPEAR LIKE IT HAS MORE CONTROL OVER TAIWAN.

>> AND THEN OF COURSE THERE'S THE QUESTION OF HOW FAR THE UNITED STATES WOULD ACTUALLY GO IN DEFENDING TAIWAN.

PRESIDENT BIDEN REALLY BROKE A YEARS LONG POLICY BY STATING THE U.S. WOULD DEFEND TAIWAN IF CHINA WERE TO INVADE.

WE HAVEN'T HEARD THAT FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP.

AND YOU TALKED ABOUT IN YOUR PIECE HOW THERE ARE CONFLICTING VIEWS IN HIS OWN ADMINISTRATION ASKED WHAT THE POLICY WOULD BE AND WHAT THE UNITED STATES ACTUALLY WOULD DO.

IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN, YOU KNOW, FIRE TO THE TARIFF WAR, THE FOCUS HAD BEEN ON WHAT THE UNITED STATES WAS DOING VIS-@- VIS THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND HOW SERIOUSLY THE U.S. WAS WILLING TO SUPPORT UKRAINE.

NOW, WITH THIS TRADE WAR AND HEIGHTENED TENSIONS WITH CHINA BUT CHINA ALSO GETTING A SENSE THAT THE UNITED STATES OR PRESIDENT TRUMP CAN BLINK FIRST, HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU ABOUT A MASSIVE MIX CALCULATION ON THE PART OF CHINA?

>> I AM QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT A MISCALCULATION ON CHINA'S PART FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS.

WHAT WE PERCEIVE TO BE MISPERCEPTIONS FROM THE CHINESE SIDE, WE ARE NOT TRYING TO SAY RIGHT NOW THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S POLICY ON TAIWAN IS ACTUALLY THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION'S.

IF YOU ACTUALLY LOOK AT IT, THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE U.S.

GOVERNMENTS POSITIONER POLICIES ON TAIWAN.

BUT THERE IS LOTS OF MEDIA REPORTING ON WHAT YOU TALKED ABOUT, PRESIDENT TRUMP NOT MAKING THE SAME STATEMENTS AS PRESIDENT BIDEN.

IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WHEN PRESIDENT BIDEN DID MAKE THOSE STATEMENTS ABOUT THE UNITED STATES WILLING TO DEFEND TAIWAN, HIS ADVISERS QUICKLY WALKED BACK THOSE STATEMENTS.

WE STILL HAVE STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY.

WE HAD THAT UNDER PRESIDENT BIDEN AND WE HAD THAT UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP.

I THINK WITH THE CHINESE FOCUS ON IS ALSO A SENSE THAT UNDER THE FIRST TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, THERE WAS A LOT MORE SUPPORT FOR TAIWAN THEN BEFORE.

AND THEY ARE ALSO WORRIED THAT IF THEY ARE NOT REALLY CERTAIN WHERE PRESIDENT TRUMP IS FROM THEIR PERCEPTION AND THEY WRITEUP BELOW PRESIDENT TRUMP ALL HIS ADVISERS ARE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR TAIWAN THAN.

IT MIGHT MAKE SENSE TO RAISE THE ISSUE TO PRESIDENT TRUMP SO HE IS ABLE TO SEE THIS AND POTENTIALLY EVEN CHECK WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH HIS ADVISERS.

AGAIN, THOSE ARE PERCEPTIONS FROM BEIJING.

I AM NOT SAYING THERE HAS BEEN ANY CHANGE IN THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S POLICIES TOWARDS TAIWAN.

>> A REALLY THOUGHTFUL AND THOUGHT PROVOCATIVE PIECE.

THANK YOU FOR EXPLAINING IT FOR US.

I APPRECIATE THE TIME.

>>> WELL, NOW, AFTER A SLEW OF MULTI MILLION TECH DEALS, PRESIDENT TRUMP MAY HAVE OPENED UP THE DOOR FOR THE GULF TO BECOME THE NEXT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE HOTSPOT.

YEARS AGO, OUR NEXT GUEST LAID OUT THE IDEA OF A TECHNO-POLAR WORLD.

PRESIDENT AND FOUNDER OF THE EURASIA GROUP IN BREMMER DISCUSSES HOW TRUMP'S TRIP TO THE MIDDLE EAST COULD BE TAKING US CLOSER TO THAT VISION.

>> THANK YOU.

AND WELCOME BACK TO THE SHOW.

>> ALWAYS GOOD TO BE WITH YOU.

>> WE TALKED ABOUT GLOBAL RECESSION, MEANING THAT OUR INSTITUTIONS THESE DAYS ARE NOT KEEPING UP WITH THE CHANGES THAT ARE HAPPENING IN THE WORLD.

DONALD TRUMP HAS DONE THAT TOUR OF THE MIDDLE EAST, ESPECIALLY THE PERSIAN GULF, AND THEN A VERY TRANSACTIONAL TYPE OF FOREIGN POLICY IN LISTING ALL OF THE PERSIAN GULF INTO SORT OF AN ECONOMIC ORBIT WITH THE UNITED STATES.

HOW BIG OF A TECTONIC CHANGE MIGHT THAT BE?

>> I THINK IT IS AN INCREMENTAL CHEF.

LET'S KEEP IN MIND WHEN PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS PRESENT FIRST TIME AROUND, HIS FIRST TRIP WAS ALSO TO THE GULF.

HE WENT TO SAUDI ARABIA.

YOU REMEMBER ALL THOSE LEADERS COLLECTED AND GRABBED THE ORB TOGETHER.

THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT COUNTERTERRORISM.

COUNTERINSURGENCY.

NOT AS MANY DEALS GOT DONE.

THIS TIME AROUND, YOU ARE RIGHT.

TRUMP HAD A LOT MORE CEOs.

SOME OF THE ROAD'S BIGGEST CEOs INTEL WITH HIM THAT SHIP.

THIS TIME AROUND, HE DIDN'T GO TO ISRAEL.

AND THERE IS A LOT MORE TENSION BETWEEN HIM AND PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU, SPECIALLY ON THE BACK OF SOME OF THE DIPLOMACY THAT TRUMP IS TRYING TO GET DONE.

THE FACT REMAINS AS IN 2017, TRUMP'S BEST RELATION WITH THE LEADERS THAT HE HAS ON SPEED DIAL ARE WITH THE LEADERS WHO HAVE CONSOLIDATED A LOT OF POWER IN THE GULF STATES.

PARTICULARLY, SAUDI ARABIA AND THE UAE.

THE SOLUTIONS ARE ONLY GETTING STRONGER.

ONLY GETTING DEEPER.

IF YOU WILL, MORE STRATEGICALLY TRANSACTIONAL WITH TRUMP HIMSELF.

WITH UNITED STATES.

AND WITH THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY.

>> AND HOW DOES THAT PLAY OFF AGAINST CHINA?

SOME OF THE GULF STATES HAD BEEN GETTING CLOSER TO CHINA.

IS THIS SORT OF A REBALANCING THE WAY KISSINGER AND NIXON MAY HAVE DONE AGAINST RUSSIA AND CHINA?

>> OF COURSE, THESE ARE OIL PRODUCERS AND THE UNITED STATES IS NOT TAKING ANY OIL FROM THE MIDDLE EAST OF NOTE.

THAT IS OVERWHELMINGLY GOING TO CHINA AND WILL CONTINUE TO GO TO CHINA.

SO THOSE COMMERCIAL INTERESTS AREN'T GOING AWAY.

AND THE CHINESE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO DO A LOT OF INVESTMENT ON THE GROUND IN THOSE COUNTRIES.

BUT , WHEN WE START TALKING ABOUT NATIONAL SECURITY, AND HERE NOT JUST IN THE TERMS OF THE U.S. MILITARY BASES AND THE SALES OF MATERIAL, BUT ALSO CRITICALLY WHEN WE LOOK AT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, THERE WE ARE SEEING A REAL DECISION.

THEY WANT TO WORK A.I.

WITH THE UNITED STATES AND ITS CORPORATIONS, AND THEY ARE GOING TO TAKE THE CHINESE OUT OF THEIR SYSTEM.

AND THERE IS A LOT OF PRESSURE AND A LOT OF EFFORT TO DO THE SAME WITH THE SAUDIS AND OTHER MAJOR GULF STATES.

I THINK THAT IS A SHIFT AS WE THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE GULF.

YES.

>> BUT IS THERE SOME DANGER THAT ARE SENDING ADVANCED A.I., ADVANCED CHIPS AND ALL TO THE PERSIAN GULF THAT THEY COULD END UP IN CHINESE HANDS?

>> OF COURSE THERE IS.

THERE IS ALSO A DANGER THAT LONG-TERM THE UNITED STATES IS OFF SHORING THE PRODUCTION OF -- THAT COMES FROM THESE DATA CENTERS.

THE TRAINING THAT COMES FROM BEING SO RELIANT ON THE COMPUTER THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE ENERGY THAT IS ABUNDANT AND CHEAP IN THIS REGION.

I MEAN, TRUMP SAYS HE WANTS ALL THIS TO BE INSHORED TO THE UNITED STATES.

HE WAS NOT HAPPY WITH APPLE WHEN THEY MOVED THEIR PRODUCTION TO INDIA AND THAT OF CHINA EVEN THOUGH INDIA IS MORE TRUSTED.

>> HOW DOES HE THEN JUSTIFY OUTSHORING THE A.I.

STUFF TO THE PERSIAN GULF STATES?

>> YOU ARE RIGHT.

IT IS INCONSISTENT.

THERE IS A GREAT ASYMMETRY IN THE SIZE OF THE ECONOMIES AND THE FACT UNITED STATES PROVIDES ALL THIS MILITARY SUPPORT.

HOPEFULLY, THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUARDRAILS IN WHATEVER TRUMP DOES TO REPLACE THE DIFFUSION ROLE ON A.I.

AND SEMICONDUCTORS THAT THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HAD PUT IN PLACE.

I THINK WHAT TRUMP IS TRYING TO PUT TOGETHER OUR ROLES THAT SAY THAT MOST OF THE SALES THAT COME OUT OF THESE CENTERS IN THE GULF WILL HAVE TO GO TO THE UNITED STATES.

MOST OF THAT DATA IS GOING TO HAVE TO BE WITH AMERICAN COMPANIES, AND ONLY A SMALL PERCENTAGE CAN GO TO ANY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD.

SAY 7% AS THE MAX.

THAT IS A QUANTITATIVE MEASURE I HAVE HEARD TALKED ABOUT.

BUT THEN YOU NEED PEOPLE IN THE WHITE HOUSE WITH CONFIDENCE TO FORMULATE AND IMPLEMENT WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY GOING TO BE A MULTIAGENCY RULE.

AS WE KNOW FROM THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, THERE IS NOT A LOT OF TIME SPENT ON THE DETAILS OF HOW YOU GET POLICY ACTUALLY DONE.

SO HOW LONG THAT TAKES TO GET POLICY DONE AND HOW CAPABLE THE ACTUAL RULES WILL BE IS SOMETHING WE -- IT IS SOMETHING TO BE SEEN.

>> IT SEEMS TO ME, AND I THINK YOU HAVE WRITTEN ABOUT IT IN ONE OF YOUR LATEST PIECES, THE WORLD HAS SORT OF DIVIDED ON A.I.

BETWEEN MORE OPEN COUNTRIES AND MORE STATUS COUNTRY THAT TRY TO CENTRALIZE IT.

HOW DOES THE PERSIAN GULF COUNTRIES FIT INTO THAT?

>> WELL, YOU HAVE THE CHINESE WHO HAVE SHOWN THAT THEY ARE VERY CAPABLE, EVEN WITH CONSTRAINTS FROM THE U.S. ON SEMICONDUCTORS, THEY CAN BUILD SOME OF THE WORLD'S MOST ADVANCED MODELS IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE.

AND THE STATE CONTROLS WHAT THOSE COMPANIES DO.

DETERMINES WHO THE WINNERS AND LOSERS ARE GOING TO BE AND HOW THEY DEPLOY THOSE ALGORITHMS AND WHO HAS ACCESS.

SO THE STATE REALLY CAPTURES THE CORPORATIONS.

IN THE UNITED STATES IT IS VERY DIFFERENT.

IN MANY WAYS, THE TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES ARE CAPTURING THE ESTATE.

THEY ARE WRITING THEIR OWN RULES.

THEY ARE DETERMINING HOW THEY WILL BE GOVERNED.

AND THEY SPEND A LOT OF MONEY TO MAKE SURE THEY HAVE THAT ACCESS TO THE GOVERNMENT BUT THE CAPTURE REALLY COMES FROM THE TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES.

AS I SAID, IN THE PERSIAN GULF, THERE IS A DESIRE TO ALIGN WITH THOSE AMERICAN CORPORATIONS, AT LEAST RIGHT NOW ON A.I.

AND A LOT OF MONEY IS BEING SPENT AND A LOT OF INFRASTRUCTURE IS BEING DEVELOPED TO FACILITATE THAT UNBALANCE.

THAT IS A WIN FOR THE TRUMP DEMONSTRATION AND THE UNITED STATES.

TWO QUESTIONS THAT IT RAISES.

FIRST OF ALL, TO WHAT EXTENT IF IT IS THE TECH COMPANIES AND THE GOVERNMENT THAT ARE WRITING THE RULES TO AMERICAN CITIZENS GET TAKEN CARE OF?

HOW DO YOU ENSURE YOU HAVE ROLES THAT WORK FOR THE AVERAGE AMERICAN AS OPPOSED TO JUST THE PROFITABILITY OF THE MOST POWERFUL COMPANIES OF THE WORLD?

SECOND OF ALL, IS WHAT HAPPENS TO GOVERNMENTS THAT AREN'T PLAYING A DOMINANT ROLE IN A.I.

-- I MEAN, THERE'S ANOTHER BIG MODEL OUT THERE YOU DID NOT ASK A QUESTION ABOUT WHICH IS EUROPE.

AND IN EUROPE THE GOVERNMENT SUPERPOWER IS THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT.

BUT THAT ISN'T DRIVING THE CREATION OF ANY COMPANIES AT SCALE IN THE TECH SPACE.

AND SO DOES THE EU JUST LOSE EVEN THOUGH THEY HAVE A MODEL THAT IN PRINCIPLE IS LOOKING OUT FOR RULE OF LAW AND IN PRINCIPLE IS LOOKING OUT FOR A MORE SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY?

RIGHT NOW, I WOULD SAY THE GULF STATES ARE LOOKING A LOT FASTER, MORE NIMBLE, OR SAVVY, IN ALIGNING WITH HOW THIS POWER IS CHANGING THEN THE EUROPEANS OR THE JAPANESE ARE.

>> IF YOU LOOK AT THE ENTOURAGE THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP RIGHT WITH HIM TO THE MIDDLE EAST, IT IS ALL THE GREAT TECHNO BILLIONAIRES FROM ELON MUSK, SAM ALTMAN, ANDY CHANCEY OF AMAZON, JENSEN WONG, GOOGLE'S PRESIDENT, ALEX KARP, AND ABOUT 2000 OTHERS.

WHAT YOU MAKE OF THAT?

>> THIS IS THE COMMANDING HEIGHTS OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMY.

THE U.S. IS INCREASINGLY DRIVING A MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGICAL COMPLEX.

THEY ARE IN A TECHNOLOGY COLD WAR WITH THE CHINESE.

ONE THAT THEY INTEND TO CAN CHANGE CHINA AND WIN.

AND THESE CORPORATIONS UNDERSTAND THAT AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO THE AMERICAN PRESIDENT IS THE BEST WAY FOR THEM TO IN THE SHORT TERM TAKE CARE OF THEIR SHAREHOLDERS.

ARE THEY THINKING LONG-TERM?

ARE THEY MAKING DECISIONS THAT WILL POTENTIALLY UNDERMINE THEM WITH A FUTURE ADMINISTRATION?

MIGHT THEY BE SUBJECTS OF INVESTIGATIONS FOR SOME OF THE DECISIONS THAT THEY ARE MAKING?

I THINK THEY NEED TO BE CAREFUL IN HOW CLOSE THEY FIGHT TO THE SUN.

FRANKLY, I THINK THEY MIGHT BE BETTER OFF MAKING FEWER HEADLINES AND BEING A LITTLE MORE HANDS OFF THE ADMINISTRATION THEN THEY HAVE BEEN.

AS I SAID, BECAUSE THIS IS SOMETHING A LOT OF COMPANIES HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH FOR A LONG TIME, DOING A LOT OF MORE OF IT EVEN THEN YOU MIGHT BE COMFORTABLE WITH FEELS A LITTLE BIT LIKE THE FROG IN THE BOILING POT.

YOU KNOW?

THE WATER IS GETTING WARMER BUT YOU'RE COMFORTABLE WITH WARM WATER.

>> I WANT YOU TO READ SOMETHING THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID IN A RATHER REMARKABLE SPEECH, THE SPEECH HE GAVE IN SAUDI ARABIA.

HE SAID, THE GREAT TRANSFORMATION HAS NOT COME FROM WESTERN INTERVENTIONISTS GIVING LECTURES ON HOW TO LIVE OR HOW TO GOVERN YOUR OWN AFFAIRS.

NO.

THE GLEAMING MARBLES WERE NOT CREATED BY NATION BUILDERS ARE NEOCONS OR LIBERAL NONPROFITS.

THE SO-CALLED NATION BUILDERS WRECK MORE NATION THEN THEY BUILD AND THE INTERVENTIONISTS WERE INTERVENING IN COMPLEX ASCITES THEY DID NOT EVEN UNDERSTAND.

DO YOU SEE THIS AS AN EMERGENT TRUMP DOCTRINE OR IS THAT JUST SOME RANDOM STATEMENTS?

>> HEY, I THOUGHT IT WAS A GREAT APPLAUSE LINE FOR TRUMP.

IT SPOKE TO THE INCREDIBLE NATIONAL PRIDE OF THE SAUDI'S IN THE ROOM.

AND THERE WAS A LOT OF APPLAUSE.

AND I THINK THAT APPLAUSE WAS GENUINE.

THE UNITED STATES HISTORICALLY AS THE EXCEPTION LIST NATION FREQUENTLY BELIEVES IT HAS ALL THE ANSWERS FOR OTHER COUNTRIES, IRRESPECTIVE OF THE HYPOCRISY AND NOT ALWAYS LIVING UP TO THOSE THINGS AT HOME.

AND THE U.S. HAS MADE A LOT OF MISTAKES IN TRYING TO NATION BUILD IN OTHER COUNTRIES.

MOST DRAMATICALLY IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN.

AND OF COURSE, BOTH OF THESE HAVE A LOT OF IMPACT ON AMERICAN ALLIES IN THE GULF.

BUT I WOULDN'T TAKE THAT TOO FAR.

I MEAN, THE REALITY IS WHEN THE SAUDI'S AND THE EMMA ROCKIES WERE TRYING TO BUILD A GLOBAL COUNTRIES THAT HAD ACCESS TO THE REST OF THE WORLD, THEY WERE BRINGING IN EXPERTISE FROM THE UNITED STATES.

NOT JUST CONSULTANTS BUT ENGINEERS.

CODERS AND PLANNERS.

BECAUSE THESE ARE SMALL COUNTRY THAT DIDN'T HAVE THAT EXPERTISE THEMSELVES.

I DO THINK UNITED STATES IS AT ITS BEST WHEN IT'S BEST FROM ITS FRIENDS AROUND THE WORLD.

ALSO WHEN UNITED STATES HELPS EDUCATING THOSE COUNTRY.

I MEAN, THE SAUDI'S AND THE EMIRATIS ARE DOING VERY WELL BY CREATING FORGING PARTNERSHIPS WITH AMERICA'S BEST INSTITUTIONS OF HIGHER LEARNING.

WITH AMERICA'S BEST HOSPITALS.

WITH AMERICA'S BEST RESEARCH LABS.

BRINGING THOSE IN.

THAT IS NOT BECAUSE THE AMERICANS ARE ARROGANT.

THESE COUNTRIES RECOGNIZE THAT THE U.S. IS WORLD-CLASS THERE.

WHERE THE U.S. IS NOT WORLD- CLASS IS ITS POLITICAL LEADERSHIP LECTURING THEM ON HOW TO RUN THEIR COUNTRIES.

THAT IS A PLACE FOR THE AMERICANS NOT ONLY HAVE DONE A BAD JOB OUTSIDE THE U.S.

BUT FRANKLY HAVE DONE A BAD JOB FOR THE AVERAGE AMERICANS, AND WE SEE THE RESULTS OF THAT IN ELECTION AFTER ELECTION AFTER ELECTION.

>> THE OPENING POTENTIALLY TO SYRIA, IS THIS BEING DONE, DO YOU THINK, IN CONSULTATION WITH BENJAMIN NETANYAHU IN ISRAEL OR ARE THEY BEING SIDELINED?

>> I THINK THEY ARE BEING SIDELINED.

I THINK THAT TRUMP IS NOT PARTICULARLY HAPPY WITH THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER.

HE DOESN'T FEEL THAT HE IS INTERESTED IN LISTENING TO THE U.S. YOU SAW THAT ISRAEL AND NETANYAHU -- THAT WAS THE FIRST COUNTRY INVITED TO MEET WITH TRUMP AFTER LIBERATION DAY.

AND THAT WAS A GIFT BY THE AMERICANS AND NETANYAHU CAME OVER AND SAID HE WAS GOING TO ZERO OUT HIS TARIFFS.

HE WAS EXPECTING A DEAL FROM THE AMERICANS.

AND TRUMP SAID, NO.

YOU SHOULD BE REALLY THANKFUL.

WE GIVE YOU BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN MILITARY EQUIPMENT.

WE ARE GOING TO DO THAT.

BY THE WAY, WE ARE GOING TO START TALKING WITH THE IRANIANS AND WE ARE NOT GOING TO ASK YOU ABOUT IT.

I THINK YOU HAVE SEEN THE SAME THING WITH THE DEAL CUT WITH WHO SEES THAT DOES NOT INCLUDE NO ATTACKS ON ISRAEL.

IT JUST INCLUDES NO ATTACKS ON AMERICAN SHIPS.

I THINK THIS IS TRUMP WAS BY FAR ISRAEL'S NUMBER ONE SUPPORTER GLOBALLY.

THAT REMAINS THE CASE TODAY.

HELPING THEM DEFEND THEMSELVES.

PROVIDING MASSIVE MILITARY AID.

HUGE AMOUNTS OF COVER TO CONTINUE THE WAR ON THE GROUND IN GAZA AND FRANKLY IN THE WEST BANK, TOO.

BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN THEY'RE GOING TO COORDINATE WITH THEM THEIR BROADER MILITARY MOVES IN THE REGION.

IF YOU REMEMBER, WALTER, THREE MONTHS AGO EVERYONE WAS TALKING ABOUT DRAMATICALLY IS WILL TRUMP COME IN AND CUT THE DEAL THAT BRINGS THE SAUDIS INTO THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS, AND I WILL HELP THEM TO FACILITATE AN OPENING TO ISRAEL.

WELL, IT IS VERY CLEAR TO TRUMP THAT IS NOT HAPPENING.

SO HE HAS GIVEN UP ON THAT AND HE IS MOVED ONTO LET'S WORK WITH THE SAUDI'S.

WE WILL WORK FOR THE GULF STATES.

WE TRUST THEM.

THEY ARE VERY TRANSACTIONAL.

THEY WILL GIVE US LOTS OF MONEY, INCLUDING ME AND MY FAMILY DIRECTLY.

THAT IS THE WAY WE CAN CUT A DEAL WITH IRAN.

CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL BUT WE ARE NOT GOING TO COORDINATE OUR DIPLOMATIC APPROACH OR ECONOMIC APPROACH TO THE REGION WITH HIM.

THAT IS ABSOLUTELY WHERE WE ARE TODAY.

>> TRUMP'S FAMILY MEMBERS HAVE SO MANY DEALINGS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND SO MUCH MONEY COMING IN AND OUT.

DO YOU SEE THAT BECOMING AN ISSUE AND WHAT CORRUPTION BOTHERS YOU IN THAT?

>> I WISH I SAW IT BECOMING AN ISSUE.

I DON'T, WALTER.

I THINK THE REALITY IS THAT THE UNITED STATES FOR A VERY LONG TIME HAS BEEN THE MOST KLEPTOCRATIC, THE MOST COIN- OPERATED OF WEALTHY DEMOCRACIES IN THE WORLD.

IT IS THE BILLIONS AND BILLIONS THAT ARE SPENT BY SPECIAL INTERESTS ON EVERY ELECTION AND THEY EXPECT AND THEY SEE A RETURN ON THAT INVESTMENT.

IT IS DEEPLY TRANSACTIONAL.

SO WHEN TRUMP COMES OUT AND HE LAUNCHES A CRYPTO COIN FOR HIMSELF AND HIS FAMILY, WHEN TRUMP COMES OUT AND HE SUPPORTS MAJOR DEALS FOR MEMBERS OF HIS FAMILY WITH THE COUNTRY THAT THE U.S. IS DOING DIPLOMACY WITH, THAT IS FRANKLY EVEN MORE KLEPTOCRATIC, BUT THE COMPANIES AROUND THE WORLD, THEY ARE USED TO WRITING BIG CHECKS FOR ACCESS.

EVEN FOR PEOPLE WHO CAN GET THEM ACCESS TO THE FAMILY.

IT IS MORE OBVIOUS FOR TRUMP THAN IT WAS FOR BITING, BUT IT HAPPENED UNDER BITING, TOO.

>> DON'T YOU THINK THIS IS NOT JUST CONTINUATION OF WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING, BUT ERIC TRUMP GOING TO DO BITE WHEN THEY ARE GIVING $2 BILLION TO THE UAE TO THIS , I DON'T KNOW, WORLD LIBERTY FINANCIAL COINS.

THAT SEEMS TO BE A DIFFERENT LEAGUE.

>> THIS IS THE PROBLEM.

THE UNITED STATES HAS BEEN ACTIVELY TALKING AS IF IT HAS THE BEST EXAMPLE OF DEMOCRACY IN THE WORLD FOR DECADES.

AND IT DOESN'T.

IT DOESN'T.

AND IT DOESN'T SPECIFICALLY BECAUSE PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD FEEL LIKE YOU CAN PAY TO GET ACCESS TO A DIFFERENT LEGAL SYSTEM.

YOU CAN PAY TO WRITE YOUR OLD REGULATIONS.

YOU CAN PAY TO GOOD OUTCOMES YOU ONE.

BY THE WAY, I THINK THAT IS NOT TRUE IN TERMS OF AUTOCRACY.

SO ONE TRUMP GOES AFTER THE LAW FIRMS AND SAYS, I AM GOING TO EXTORT YOU BECAUSE YOU DECIDED TO REPRESENT SOMEONE THAT DESERVES REPRESENTATION, AND THIS IS AN ATTACK ON FOUNDATIONAL ROLE IN AMERICA.

THE LAW FIRMS REACT TO THAT BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT USED TO DICTATORSHIP IN THE UNITED STATES.

COMPANIES ARE USED TO AUTOCRACY.

WHEN TRUMP GOES AFTER UNIVERSITIES AND SAYS WE ARE NOT GOING TO ALLOW YOU TO EDUCATE STUDENTS IN A MANNER THAT YOU SEE FIT, UNIVERSITIES RESPOND AND SAY, WOW, WOW, WOW.

WE WON'T TOLERATE THAT.

SO I DO NOT BELIEVE THE U.S. IS ON THE PRECIPICE OF BECOMING A DICTATORSHIP.

BUT I DO BELIEVE THAT U.S. HAS BEEN DRIVING SPEEDILY ON THE ROAD TO AUTOCRACY FOR A LONG TIME NOW AND I THINK TRUMP HAS HIS FOOT ON THE GAS.

THAT IS THE WAY I WOULD PUT IT.

>> IAN BREMMER, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US .

>>> AND FINALLY, CELEBRATING THE RICH DIVERSITY OF AMERICA.

CHOREOGRAPHER BILL T. JONES IS BACK WITH A NEW SHOW.

EXPLORES WHAT IT MEANS TO BE AN AMERICAN TODAY.

MASS DEPORTATIONS, INCREASED SURVEILLANCE, AND CENSORSHIP.

WELL, LAST YEAR, BILL T. JONES SAT DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIS MULTIMEDIA WORK STILL HERE TO EXPRESS SHARED EXPERIENCE.

>> Reporter: WHAT YOU THINK IS DIFFERENT TODAY AS YOU POINT OUT WAR AND CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE WORLD GOING UP IN CHANGE FOR THE AVERAGE 19-21-YEAR-OLD.

THAN FOR US WHEN WE WERE THAT AGE IN THE '80s WHEN THERE WAS A FEAR OF NUCLEAR WAR?

>> I AM NOT 19 YEARS OLD.

WHY WOULD I BE SO POMPOUS AS TO ANSWER.

THEY TELL ME THAT THEY ARE LESS CERTAIN IN THEIR FUTURE THAN I WAS.

I FELT ART WAS PARTICIPATION.

THE WORLD OF IDEAS WAS LIKE RELIGION.

IF YOU WANT TO KNOW WHAT MAKES LIFE WORTH LIVING, GIVE YOURSELF TO AN AESTHETIC PURSUIT.

WHAT IS A POETIC PHRASE?

HOW CAN LANGUAGE BE USED?

AM I ANONYMOUS NUMBER OR MI SOME ENTITY THAT HAS A PLACE?

I THINK ARTISTS IN THIS VERY EGO-DRIVEN WORLD THAT WE LIVE IN CAN GIVE US A CHANCE OF ANSWERING THAT QUESTION.

I HAVE SOME UNIQUENESS.

I HAVE A VOICE THAT MATTERS.

YET I AM PART OF PLURALITY.

POLITICS IS PLURALITY.

HOW DO WE LIVE TOGETHER?

THAT IS A BIG ONE FOR ME.

STILL TRYING TO DO.

WANTS TO MAKE SOME COMMON EXPERIENCE.

AND THE COMMON EXPERIENCE AS WE LIVE, WE GROW, SOME OF US WILL REPRODUCE, AND WE WILL CERTAINLY DIE.

I THOUGHT WE ALL KNEW THAT.

BUT WE HAVE TO BE REMINDED AGAIN AND AGAIN THAT IS THE ARK.

NOW, WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO WITH IT WHILE WE ARE HERE?

>> Reporter: WHAT SHOULD WE DO WITH IT?

>> MAKE SOMETHING BEAUTIFUL.

HAVE HONEST CONVERSATION.

DON'T FALL BACK ON CLICHI.

AND BE BRAVE.

>> HIS NEW WORK CAN BE SEEN AT YORK LIVE ARTS THROUGH MAY 24th.

AND THAT IS IT FOR OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.

IF YOU WANT TO FIND OUT WHAT IS COMING UP ON THE SHOW EACH NIGHT SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER.

THANK YOU FOR WATCHING AND JOIN US AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.